With robust job and population gains and innovative sector partnerships, Lockhart’s legendary BBQ culture fuels economic momentum.

Caldwell County is on the rise, with its population growing by 15.6% since 2018 and jobs climbing by 11.5%—from 10,885 to 12,142. This steady growth is setting the stage for an even more vibrant local economy over the next five years, even as the county’s median household income of $66.8K remains below the national benchmark. A mix of restaurants, education and healthcare services, and local government agencies is driving this upward trend, showcasing the county’s resilience and diverse economic base.

Lockhart, known as the capital of Texas BBQ, adds a unique flavor to Caldwell County’s economic landscape. The region’s rich culinary heritage not only attracts tourists but also bolsters local businesses and creates dynamic opportunities within the food service industry. Moreover, Caldwell County’s affordability and strategic location—nestled between major metropolitan centers—offer an attractive quality of life for families and entrepreneurs alike.

Meanwhile, Workforce Solutions Rural Capital Area is forging strategic partnerships with industry leaders to address both immediate and long-term talent needs. With 3,835 companies employing local talent and 425 job postings in the past year, these initiatives empower employers with innovative recruitment and retention strategies, ensuring that Caldwell County continues to sizzle as a hub for business, talent, and, of course, world-class BBQ.

Shift Share in Caldwell County

This article is part of an ongoing, county-by-county, industry overview of the Rural Capital Area. This article covers Shift Share in Caldwell County.

What is Shift Share?

Shift-share analysis is a regional economic analysis technique used to examine the factors contributing to employment or economic growth in a specific region. It helps policymakers and analysts understand how much of a region’s job growth is due to various reasons including national, industrial, or local. Most importantly the “Competitive Effect” indicates how much of overall job change is the result of some unique competitive advantage of the region.^[1]

To define the terms included in this analysis: Net Effect is the sum of the National Effect (reflecting overall job growth driven by the national economy), the Industry Shift effect (showing how national industry trends impact the region), and the Competitive Effect (indicating how local competitive advantages or disadvantages influence job growth beyond national trends).

Local Shift Share in the County

To analyze Shift Share in Caldwell County, we will use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). NAICS organizes economic activity into a structured hierarchy for businesses based on the type of work they do. Sectors are broad categories used to group similar types of economic activity, classified by two-digit codes. Industries are detailed classifications that focus on the specific business operations within those sectors, organized by six-digit codes.

Figure 1 illustrates the top five sectors by Competitive Effect in Caldwell County. Each sector, especially Trade, Transportation, and Utilities, exhibits a positive Competitive Effect. Although, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities has a negative Industry Shift value of 27. However, this does not necessarily indicate a poor outcome. A negative Industry Shift combined with a positive Competitive Effect indicates that while the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector is declining nationally, it is growing in Caldwell County. This suggests that Caldwell County outperforms the national trend and is successfully expanding employment in this sector. 

Figure 1: Top Five Sectors in Caldwell County by Competitive Effect, 2023

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

Between 2010 and 2020, the Texas Innovation Corridor, which includes Caldwell County, experienced a 69% increase in new business establishments. The Texas Innovation Corridor, spanning 13 Central Texas counties and five major universities along I-35 between Austin and San Antonio, is experiencing rapid population growth and economic development that attracts businesses and job seekers alike.

One of the fastest-growing sectors during this period was Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, which ranks among the top three expanding industry subcategories.^[2] As shown above, this aligns well with the Shift Share data, pointing to the Texas Innovation Corridor as a likely driver of the positive Competitive Effect in Caldwell County. 

Figure 2: Top Five Six-Digit Industries in Caldwell County by Competitive Effect, 2018-2023

Source: Data Tactical Group, DTG 2025.Q2

When breaking down NAICS codes to detailed industries, more insight is provided on how each industry in different sectors compares to the U.S. counterpart. Industry trends are shown Figure 2 and summarized below:

• Residential Mental and Substance Abuse Care showed positive values across all four shift-share components. The positive Industry Shift reflects national growth in this industry, while the Competitive Effect suggests that this industry is growing for Caldwell County-specific reasons as well.
• Elementary and Secondary Schools showed a negative Industry Shift, meaning the industry is declining nationally. However, the positive Competitive Effect indicates Caldwell County is outperforming the U.S. in job growth for this industry.
• Limited-Service Restaurants, Full-Service Restaurants, and Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores also experience the dynamic of negative Industry Shift values but positive Competitive Effect values. This shows that the industries are growing for regional reasons, in contrast to national industry decline.